Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Intrade Predicts Obama Landslide

Today's electoral map from predicts a landslide victory for Barack Obama. Intrade is a betting site where users buy and sell "shares" of candidates in elections.

The bettors think Obama will sweep all the states John Kerry won in 2004, plus the swing states of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. The only swing state bettors think McCain will take is Missouri.

If this map ends up being the final one, Obama wins 339 electoral votes to McCain's 200.

I sure hope they're correct!


csm said...

McCain pulled his staff out of Michigan today, basically conceding the state to Obama.

csm said...

And this is why Obama cannot build a lead that is too great. Racism. There are probably people saying they will vote for Obama in the polls, but their racism will cause them not to when they get behind that curtain to vote. Keep on keepin' on, Barack. You need at least a 10 point lead in the polls on election day for me to feel comfortable that you will win.

G said...

I've been wondering about these claims of racism (since they've been popping up with greater frequency lately). I realize that there are some people (a rather small minority, I believe) who will vote against Obama simply because he's black. I'm sure there are also some (again, a small minority) who plan to vote FOR Obama, simply because he's black.

My question is whether those people will have any effect on the election at all. Really, you can eliminate everyone in those two groups who live in a state that is overwhelmingly Republican or Democrat because even a few thousand votes is essentially meaningless.

Next, you eliminate any racist Republicans because it is unlikely they would vote for ANY liberal Democrat, regardless of race. And of course, eliminate any Democrats voting FOR Obama because he's black, since they would likely vote for whatever Democrat won the primary.

So what it really comes down to is within the states that have any real contest between the two (maybe a dozen at the most), is there enough of an offset between racist Democrats and independents versus the Republicans and indys who will vote FOR Obama because he's black to make any significant difference at all?

I consider that possibility highly doubtful.

csm said...

You probably have a point there, g. Though I dispute that there are large numbers of Republican blacks who will vote for Obama. I dispute that there are large numbers of black Republicans at all! Could happen on the Independent side, though.

That said, the number of white folks in the US of A far exceeds the number of African Americans. So racist cracker could affect this race. I don't think they will, though, because I think Obama will have built up a large enough cushion that the racism factor won't matter... but I could be wrong.

G said...

Just as a clarification, I didn't mean black Republicans and indies. I meant Reps & indies (of all races) who would vote for Obama primarily because HE (the candidate) is black. But still I agree that the number of Reps in that category is probably minimal.

Anony Mouse said...

The racism cry has been the work of Barry and his team. Of course folks will not vote for the black man just as some will vote for him only because he is black. Some will not vote for Palin because she is a woman and some will just because she is a woman. I think Madeline Albright was the one who claimed there was a special place in hell for a woman who would not support another woman. Barry started early with the race when is wasn’t there in an effort win the confidence of the black community. It was irresponsible but gives him a great excuse if he loses. Whiny is not a great characteristic for a potential president.

csm said...

OK, so where and when did Barack Obama make this claim and back it up with a citation please.

The FACT is that racism exists. The FACT is that more people will NOT vote for a black man because he is black than those who will vote for a black man just because he is black. No amount of twisting and turning will make that un-true. I do not think it will cause Obama to lose, but it is an obstacle his campaign will have to surmount.